April 2, about 17:00, the Philippine National Investigation Department (NFA) of the police and officials from the Manila suburb of a four-storey warehouse go down. They received a tip-off, are here to the crime scene investigation. However, their goal is not to search for drugs or weapons, the things they are looking for rice. A similar investigation is being launched nationwide the Philippines, is the target of some unscrupulous traders, who use the most basic food - Asian rice prices high opportunity, the Government will subsidize the price of rice re-packaging and selling high-profit-making. Philippine National Investigation Department is responsible for issuing subsidies of rice, a spokesman for the department?????Tuopeileizi said that police officers made some success. “We found in a warehouse of the 27,000 bags of rice. In another warehouse, we find that many, many marked with the words of the NFA air Midai,”??????said: “Well, there are to where the rice has to be »”

“Where rice to the« “This is also the millions of Asians are puzzled questions. In the entire Asian region, food prices, from wheat to pork, in order to speed up the stunning. However, it is rice, the Asian diet is the cornerstone of their culture is a powerful symbol, its price increases triggered the deepest anxiety. Over the past year, in Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and other places, the price of rice has risen 100%, which caused an unprecedented surge of the injury, because Asian families are often a week in the life of the budget is often spent half Food, far higher than the proportion of the West family consumption. In an effort to curb the spiral of domestic prices, the major rice-producing countries, including India and Vietnam, have been substantially lower exports, making the global supply chain volatility, ignited a more serious inflation and lead to panic and hoarding of rice shortage. Asia is experiencing the ugly side of globalization: Because all the key materials in an increasing reliance on each other when they attempt to influence the world, themselves also become more vulnerable.

In the Asian market, if there is no pork sold is also a major event, not going to a big extent, you can also turn to buy chicken or fish. However, in many Asian recipes, rice no good alternatives. In Chinese, often synonymous with rice and food is in Thai, “eat” was translated as “eat rice.” “Rice and other commodities not the same,” at the Manila International Rice Research Institute in charge of Zege Le Robert said: “In Asia, rice has cultural, social role, in many places, and even played a religious role, so it than others Things are more important psychological significance and impact. “Indeed, although the rice shortage is only a possibility, the response of Asian countries has almost hysterical. The Government of the Philippines threatened to undermine the economic charged hoarding of rice, such offences can be sentenced to life imprisonment. Last week, in Manila, heavily armed soldiers will Yidai Dai rice subsidies from military trucks on the move, given to the scorching sun at noon under the queuing residents. In the world’s largest rice exporter Thailand, some stores put up a serious statement that limits each family to buy three bags of rice, so as not to be Bankong shelf.

“State hoarding”

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, the world supply of rice in fact not so tight, just last year’s output exceeded 420 million tonnes. However, the price of rice is soaring for several reasons: First, China, India and other countries due to the economic development and people appetite for bigger, better, leading to growing demand for long-term and the other is a rare cold weather and Vietnam (the world’s second largest rice M suppliers) pest lead to a short-term supply; In addition, the United States, Brazil and other places of local maize was part of the “diversion” to produce ethanol, the results of the other stimulating the demand for food, including rice.

However, when you use economics to study the dynamics of a country’s market, you will find the situation more complicated. For example, in India, where rice prices rose rapidly, so that the inflation rate last month reached a seven percent, setting the highest in more than three years. However, the torture of this country is not the traditional supply difficulties. India’s rice production this year should reach 94 million tonnes higher than last year, more than 200 million tonnes in 2003, higher than the output of more than 20 million tonnes - the year the monsoon cause great damage to agriculture. Rice to help feed the poor rice distribution plan has not been to combat the shortage, senior officials of the Government of India Mano Jie PAN Dai said that last year the plan purchased 20.6 million tonnes of rice this year is estimated to rise to 25 million tonnes . “This is not low production or import of the question.” He said.

So, where is the problem » Over the past 15 years, the implementation of economic reforms, the Indian government has gradually relaxed the restrictions on rice trade. India is now more open to the world, and therefore more vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Today the All India farmers and traders are willing to food sold to the highest bidder to customers, which means that, in the past in the domestic market to sell a large number of rice now sold to foreign buyers - which in turn further push up domestic prices. The Government of India do its best, to as many as possible of rice to stay in the country, to curb inflation. It issued regulations prohibiting the export of rice Basimadi and implemented a price control, impede the Basimadi aromatic rice exports. “In despair, the Government tried to isolate the domestic market.” Daugava Nehru University in New Delhi, an associate professor and economist BB Bata Ochoa said.

However, the man-made interference often bring unintended consequences. In theory, India eased restrictions on exports to the domestic price pressure, because the market will have more rice supply. However, due to the global market price of the benchmark is still a judge, the Indian Chamber of Commerce meters boycott, refusing to much lower than international market prices to sell their stock. This means that the Indian domestic market will reduce the supply of rice, and ordinary Indians to pay the price of rice remains high, even higher than before. Economists Swami that Sang S Anke Sali Ya Aiyar recently in “The Times of India” on the column, wrote that restrictions on exports is actually a “national hoarding,” “Government is usually that m Is harmful to hoarding, will have dire consequences, and the hoarding of it in the public interest. But the fact the two effects on prices is the same. When the Government began hoarding food, trying to rescue the people from fear Out, it will stimulate more panic and more inflationary tendencies. ”

At the bottom of the food chain

Of course, the high global prices on the poor the most serious injuries, the Mengjia Ge and a country like the Philippines is particularly profound impact, because they rely on imports to feed its huge population. In November of last year’s hurricanes in Bangladesh so that autumn grain by a large area, 800,000 tonnes of rice to loss, forcing the country’s imports from India additional 2.4 million tonnes of rice, to avoid famine. In Vietnam, bad weather and pest outbreaks affected the harvest. In the Philippines, there are 68 million people whose income is less than two U.S. dollars a day, the Government has recently called for restaurants to halve the amount of rice each. Credit Suisse estimates that in 2008 the shortage of rice to the Philippines will account for the losses caused by the GDP by one percentage point. Last week, in order to buy a bag of 50 kg of rice for the whole family of five human consumption, Manila residents?????a whole row of the team for an hour, she said he now felt the pain of hunger. “To feed my family has been very difficult, now we are worried that rice will Chiguang. I have already started to do more watery gruel, in order to use less point meters. Rice for us, very important: it is our fate. It does not , We will die. “At the same time, food assistance project is also facing challenges. United Nations World Food Programme (it is 1.1 million Filipinos to provide food) for the Philippines Valerie ancient Ani Li said that rising prices mean that the organization must be 19 million U.S. dollars in 60 percent of the budget spent on food, compared Last year, an increase of 45 percent. “This we will have a significant impact on the operation,” Valerie said.

It appears that the rice crisis in Asia will not have been alleviated in the short term and long-term view of the situation may even be worse. International Rice Research Institute of Zege Le said that rice production can not keep up with surging demand for the Asian population. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the global rice consumption in the last year, an increase of 0.9 percent, reaching nearly 424 million tonnes, but the rice yield of less than 0.7 percent growth. “This situation has continued for several years,” said Ze Gele, he said Global rice reserves are in several decades to its lowest point. “We eat rice than we were out of rice and more. Continued growth in demand for rice, while the growth rate of output is very small, even marking time.”

Ze Gele in view, this situation is due to the lack of government investment in agriculture. In most of Asia, rice farming still remain in the small-scale and inefficient state. For example, the average yield of rice in Thailand, China or the United States less than half the output of paddy fields. At the same time, Asia’s rapid urbanization Tundiao the fertile farmland. From the urban area in Hanoi, Vietnam about 19 kilometers north of Nanjing Province (BacNinh), a four-lane highway will combine with the green rice fields Lian Yan cut in half. Not far away, rice farmers NguyenThiLan are no legs at a depth of the water weeding. He said that the Vietnamese joint venture with a Singapore company will soon be built here in 700 hectares of industrial parks and town, this film agricultural areas into satellite towns. Vietnam Agriculture and Rural Development Planning Department head TrangHieuDung said that due to urban construction, high-speed roads and industrial parks, Vietnam lost 40,000 hectares a year of rice fields. In Thailand, 1,995 to 2,005 years, the annual reduction in cultivated land area of 13% or even more.

Asian governments have make every effort to ensure that their own jobs, or full. Vietnam recently implemented export restrictions to ensure domestic supply, with the result that the international inventory reduction, the global rice prices rise. China has also introduced strict restrictions on exports to stabilize domestic grain prices. At the same time, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo personally come forward, and Vietnam signed a 1.5 million tonnes of rice contracts.

Similarly, the Asian influence on the rice crisis will not be limited to Asia. For some poor African countries, this is a devastating news. We should know that the current Asian rice shortage is most acute in the Philippines only 15 percent of rice imports, while many countries in sub-import ratio of 40%. Vietnam will be more rice to the Philippines, it will mean the loss of these African rice, to those The world’s population living in poverty to provide food of non-governmental organizations lose these rice. “A lot of people do not realize that, in Africa eat the rice-dependent Asia’s surplus.” Zege Le said. In other words, Asians now eat meals are part of the mouth is the loss of Africans, Asian countries Shoumangjiaoluan to protect their supply means a more hunger in the world will appear.

Q & A grain prices

Beginning last year, the global wheat, rice and corn prices rose almost doubled - in the international food market, the prices of food also is not just these. The situation has become increasingly worse, even the aid agencies have no choice but to reflect on its programme of work. Why is there such a situation » What can we do » Western journalists visiting experts, find answers to the following questions.

Question: What current world grain prices »

Answer: In the international market of agricultural products, many food prices rose sharply. The past six months, wheat prices rose doubled, other agricultural products such as maize soybeans also higher than the trading price in the 1990s, the average price. Rice and coffee trading price has reached a 10-year high point. In some countries, milk and pork prices rose by 2 times.

Q: Why do we only now found that these issues »

A: This is the world agricultural products can be called “golden era” - the end of this glorious period has been extended for more than 30 years, in the past 30 years, world grain prices are neither high nor low and maintained a relatively stable momentum. Moreover, in many cases, major agricultural products such as wheat, corn and soybean demand is still declining. In the stock market, due to the demand for agricultural products is not high, in many countries is not too much hoarding of food, food stocks are very low price. However, such a long period of price stability situation has come to an end. Many analysts said that we have entered a new turning point, high grain prices to continue for a long time.

Q: In today’s grain prices rose, who is the winner who is the loser »

A: The biggest loser in developing countries living in the city’s poor, they face the plight of low-income high grain prices. From Haiti to Indonesia, the food crisis led to riots triggered by the growing political instability. Sector bank official pointed out that high grain prices to enable developing countries to become major global poverty. The biggest winners are the farmers in rich countries major grain producing countries, such as the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Canada and Australia, they broke the record price of agricultural products.

Some poor farmers have benefited from higher grain prices.

Q: high prices triggered what is the main reason »

A: The primary reason is that the world’s population continue to grow. According to the forecast, to mid-century, the world’s population will reach 9 billion. There are so many crawling under the population, increased demand for food. Moreover, with improved living standards, many countries and regions on the demand for grain formation of a new consumption growth points, Roudan Nai fish and other animal protein food consumption growing rapidly, leading to more consumption of feed grain. The natural increase in population in the area of the Earth’s resources to create pressure. Land, water, oil and food, and other resources are very scarce. However, in addition to the primary factor in the population, there are more important factor in promoting the rise of grain prices, the economic miracle will often bring economic problems, such as India. The frankly, the people in rich countries eat more than the poor, the economic development of a new middle-class consumers, they bought the meat than the poor, to buy the processed food more than the poor. FAO statistics, at present, the global food and processed foods account for 80 percent of beverages.

World Food Programme Executive Director of Qiao Sete Hiran said that the sharp decline in world grain reserve is one of the main reasons. Remove lead to reduction of natural disasters, there are also human factors, the world’s third-rice-exporting countries of India, neglect of agricultural development in recent years, the city as the center of economic policy, leading to reduced agricultural productivity year after year.

Q: There are other factors at work? »

A: There are so many of the population lives on Earth, and will have a pressure on the environment; climate change is one of the reasons for the increase of grain prices.

East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa increased the degree of desertification, an increasing number of floods, the rainfall reduced, these effects are an important factor in agricultural production. Global warming, rising grain prices is the main driving force.

Food will be converted into bio-fuels, food is one of the reasons for the reduction. By 2010, the United States for the production of ethanol corn crop is estimated to be 30 per cent of the country. According to the United States as the “energy bill” to the 2022 U.S. bio-energy use will reach 36 billion gallons. Some analysts said that perhaps the United States through the corn to ethanol refining capacity to save for the storage of gasoline was less than 1%, but the global grain prices rose nearly 40%.

The loan is also a major cause of the crisis. It makes a lot of money lost this important real estate into the market and lead to the U.S. economic slowdown. In order to prevent further deterioration of the situation and thus affect global economic growth, Governments injected large amounts of funds to the market. However, the real estate market prospects are still not optimistic, with the stock market as represented by the capital market turbulence, the large injection of “an impasse” can only be joined in commodity markets. As a commodity market, “important members”, food prices were also raised the inevitable.

Many data have showed that the international grain market supply and demand tension is not as serious as in the imagination. However, driven by interests, this is not serious tension in relations to attract a large number of floating capital, driving up prices and thus enlarge the “tension” effect, resulting in the international grain market supply and demand relationship is very tense illusion. In turn, this illusion has attracted more capital inflows, further driving up prices. So repeatedly in a vicious cycle, but also to higher food prices. In addition, high oil prices also promoted the rise in grain prices, the rise in international oil prices have more than 100 U.S. dollars a barrel price than the same period last year were up 58 percent. Food transport and refining of oil in the cost of fertilizers followed up. Of course, war, international capital speculation and hoarding of speculators who also inevitably raise the prices.

Q: What do we have to deal with these issues »

A: Many countries are working to limit grain prices, governments adopted a series of measures, including lowering import tariffs and increase food subsidies, guarantee the domestic food supply. The Government of the Philippines has increased hoarding food grain prices and the manipulation of the crackdown, the Government of India announced the new financial year budget, increasing the proportion of agricultural inputs, and promulgated a series of related support policies; Government of Egypt also under domestic market demand To develop cultivation of vegetables and fruits policies to promote the diversification of sources of food imports.

The World Bank also called on States to take measures to reduce prices to help the poor. FAO is actively raising funds for emergency relief projects. The long term, the international community is called on countries to donate more money to support developing countries improve food production.

So far, only a small part of foreign assistance funds to help farmers in developing countries, the World Bank said donors need to increase the intensity, the only African agriculture will need 800 million U.S. dollars of assistance. Some international organizations such as the British famine relief committee is to help farmers in developing countries, and expand markets for agricultural products to meet the demand for agricultural products in rich countries.

Q: restrictions on the export of food plan feasible? »

A: The face of rising grain prices, many countries have taken measures to limit grain exports to stabilize domestic prices. But this is only a captive, is an expedient measure, rather than fundamental strategy. Because of food price hikes is the root cause for human food, fuel demand continued to increase. Experts point out that in order to fundamentally solve the food problems of developing countries, but also depends on increasing food production. At the same time, the grain reserve is also an appropriate and stable grain price protection.

Q: The international community what has been done to »

A: The food crisis has become a world trade meeting of the important issues. April 14, the United Nations Economic and Social Council and the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization and other international financial and trade institutions jointly held a high-level meeting to discuss the food crisis. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on the international community to take urgent measures to resolve the current food crisis facing the world. In July this year, grain prices will be put on European issues the G-8 summit for discussion. The end of the year at the Doha meeting, the heads of state will also focus on agricultural issues.

Q: How long food crisis will continue »

Answer: It is predicted that the current round of the food crisis will continue until 2010. According to the United Nations Asia and the Pacific, the Economic and Social Commission has released the report, the Asia-Pacific countries in the region facing food prices rose sharply within the next few years will be the biggest challenge. A grain prices rose the most direct consequence of forcing ordinary people. Now many families in India will start three meals a day to two meals. United Nations humanitarian food aid programme is also facing a 500 million U.S. dollars deficit, had to consider reducing the scale of assistance, which means that more people will suffer hunger. Rising grain prices caused by the many countries and regions of inflation and social instability, but also to the world economy and brought about a new political uncertainties.

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